Unprepared – Europe after the Munich Security Conference
- Dr Martin C. Wolff
- 19 February 2025
- BCCG Commentary
Evidently, European representatives were surprised by the appearance of the U.S. Vice President at the Munich Security Conference (MSC). They were unprepared for the new U.S. doctrine. Confronting the Vice President’s blunt demeanor with strong words creates a dangerous self-assurance: While European media significantly carry the events, they play an insignificant role within the U.S. media landscape. A summit of European heads of state and government was convened at short notice for Monday, February 17, to coordinate the enforced positioning. The governments of France and the United Kingdom appear unstable. European nations and the USA clearly expect Germany to take the lead. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrives as a ‘lame duck.’ Explicit written warnings about foreseeable developments were suppressed after November 6, 2024, citing the election campaign, which also affected preparatory planning. The words of the Inspector of the Army from February 24, 2022, are known: “The Army… stands more or less exposed.” The situation has worsened since then due to the provision of material to Ukraine.
For peace negotiations, practical issues must be resolved quickly: Small observer missions with minimal commitment in terms of people and material are rejected against the background of the failure of the Minsk agreements or UNIFIL in Lebanon. Without the significant engagement of a large mission, European participation in the negotiations becomes impossible. A large mission with deterrent and defense-capable troops involves up to 200,000 soldiers and would immediately raise questions about the introduction of conscription across Europe. It also binds forces that are not available or planned, such as the Lithuania Brigade.
Compensating for missing European capacities through the United Nations with multilateral mandates seems unrealistic. UN votes over the last three years have shown the influence China and Russia wield. Additionally, the UN is also unprecedentedly affected by the paradigm shift in the USA. Political fundamental decisions are being forced under high pressure.
Regardless of the European positioning, the USA is pursuing new strategic lines. Action catalogs of conservative think tanks like the Marathon Initiative serve as a framework: radical focus on Asia, reduction of the priority of the U.S. Army in favor of capabilities and capacities in the Pacific, drastic reduction of research and armament projects not directed at the Pacific, and the foreseeable withdrawal of 20,000 American soldiers from Europe. These lines extend beyond the legislative period and cannot be reintroduced within this decade. Europe faces the task of compensating for these capabilities and capacities in research and armament projects.
Dr Martin C. Wolff
Chairman, Clausewitz Netzwerk für strategische Studien (CNSS) e.V.